Short

Turkish Lira Longs Running With 1,100 Pips

Turkish Lira Longs Running With 1,100 Pips

Update: Our short positions on USDTRY have sinced been closed out via their respective take profit buy limit orders, netting us a total of +1,340 pips. Actual trade tickets posted below.

There are many ways to skin a cat that is the global weakness in the U.S. dollar. Like we have previously mentioned on many occasions, we are bearish the dollar on many aspects and have been looking at different ways in which to gain a healthy short exposure on the greenback.

Congruent with our view that emerging market currencies would outperform most in the FX complex, not withstanding heavily shorted currencies such as the Canadian dollar and Aussie dollar, we have chosen to take the path of being short USD against a basket of EMFX.

Two weeks ago, we initiated our first of the 2 shorts on the dollar against the Turkish lira, at what we believe (and has so far been validated by price action itself) was a good price both fundamentally and technically.

Short S&P 500 Profits Big, Again

Short S&P 500 Profits Big, Again

We made several trades, which will term 'good't, his past week. One being our short GBPUSD trade(to the pip). Of course we don't publish all our trades; time is better spent managing our books and generating new ideas as the markets move with great velocity. We've had our hands totally full this week but we wanted to give readers a glimpse of how we managed to bag one of our largest winners on the SPX (S&P 500 stock index) despite the highly volatile environment.

All in all, an excellent trade on our part. We're happy with the risk and money management we exercised, and also how we dynamically readjusted trade parameters in light of new circumstances and information.

Shorting GBPUSD To The Pip Profits Big

Shorting GBPUSD To The Pip Profits Big

We ended 2015 well, and we're starting 2016 well too. Putting our massive 1,420 pip winner on USDCAD last December aside, we're now almost close (5 pips away) from having our take profit limit order filled on GBPUSD. If that happens, we'll walk away with some 350 pips in profit. Not a bad start to the year huh? Especially given how treacherous the trading environment has been ever since New Year's Day; markets all around have been crashing and volatility flaring across the board.

Now on to the meaty part that is the huge downside that cable (short for GBPUSD) has seen since topping late last year. The pair has been in an almost continuous linear decline. This signals that the bears are in control of the trend for most of the time and any medium to long term trade should logically be in the direction of this prevailing trend.

EURNZD Up 1,200 Pips & Short EURAUD

EURNZD Up 1,200 Pips & Short EURAUD

Well that escalated quickly. Our short EURNZD complex has ballooned to 1,200 pips of unrealized profits. We've revised our targets after our "primary target" (as seen on the charts) was achieved. We're keeping this new "secondary target" private. Just 2 days ago we penned a note on our Trading Journal that we were heavily short the euro ahead of this Thursday's December ECB event risk.

Heavy Short Euro Ahead Of ECB

Heavy Short Euro Ahead Of ECB

Just on the EURNZD alone, we're up well over 550 pips on our 3 short positions. This figure may possibly swell past 800 pips in the next few days as the market awaits a much anticipated December ECB, where Mario Draghi is widely expected inflate the size of the ECB's already gargantuan QE Bazooka, and push interest rates deeper into negative territory. We've made our intentions apparently clear on these pages - that the euro will see more downside and we want to be well positioned to capitalize on this.

EURNZD Shorts Up 600 Pips & Updates

EURNZD Shorts Up 600 Pips & Updates

After winning 280 pips on EURAUD last week, we approach this week with relative caution because we felt the bulls would step in to defend key technical levels on the euro. And defend those levels they did.

On Monday itself, we went short for the second time on EURNZD. The pair had pulled back into our "breakout pullback selling zone", where we believed the sellers would step in again. We are now collectively up more than 600 pips on both our positions.

Still Bearish On The U.S. Dollar

Still Bearish On The U.S. Dollar

Early in April, we were officially bearish the U.S. dollar for the intermediate timeframe. That was in lieu of the more than dismal March non-farm payroll. Almost 2 months forward, we are now revising our outlook while maintaining our bias on the greenback. In today's piece, we will be outlining several key point what will shape our guidance going forward.

With language from the Fed contradicting both the street's expectations and what current economic data suggests, we feel it is crucial that investors and traders take a better look at the situation on the ground. We should however preempt readers that our bias may shift at any given point in time, and is heavily dependent on both market forces and the fundamental dynamics that are responsible for the dollar's performance in the currency markets.

 As we see it, an asymmetric balance will deter the Fed from an impulsive tightening path.We believe the Fed wants to be convinced about an economy that can absorb the shocks of a rate hike without tipping off balance. The time isn't now.

Explaining The Massacre In German Bunds

Explaining The Massacre In German Bunds

Traders all around the world have been puzzled by the unusually strong selloff in German bunds (the US equivalent of Treasuries) for the last week or so. Although the markets have been bombarded by volatility across all asset classes from stocks to currencies, the German market has been one of the hardest hit.

The selling seems to have climax yesterday after US 1Q15 GDP missed hugely, with yields on the 10-year bund rising from just over 0% to the current 0.36%, a staggering 30bp spike in yields. The amount of leveraged duration on the bund curve cannot be understated, and so has been the pain traders have endured over the last 2 weeks.

Traders have been asking if the selloff in bunds signified something more significant than panic selling or a technical capitulation. Fears of an early ECB QE "taper" have been floating around.

So is this selloff any different from previous ones? We don't think so. And we aren't alone.