rate hike

One Less Reason For A Rate Hike: March NFP Misses Big

One Less Reason For A Rate Hike: March NFP Misses Big

So much for speculation of a June or September Fed Funds rate hike. After our exhaustive commentary on the FOMC's latest statement on 19 March 2015, we concluded that a "September rate "liftoff" was extremely unlikely".

Just so happened on Easter Friday, the monthly non-farm payrolls (NFP) report for March came out to be their worst since December 2013.

For a long while now, we have been bullish on the US dollar. Our premise was mainly based on the relative strength of the US economy, and on the Fed's guidance and propensity towards monetary tightening while most of the world's other central banks have embarked on their respective paths of loosening monetary conditions.

However, having been through the volatility in both the financial markets and on the economic front, we are on the precipice of shifting our stance to being intermediately bearish the dollar.

11-13 December: Ruble Sees No Respite Despite Rate Hike; Oil Continues Massacre; Weak TLTRO Results

11-13 December: Ruble Sees No Respite Despite Rate Hike; Oil Continues Massacre; Weak TLTRO Results

The IEA (international Energy Association) cuts global oil demand forecast for fourth time in 5 months as OPEC refuses to blink and global growth forecasts dim to a twinkle. This has sent WTI prices below $60 and printed a low of $57.31, the weakest since July 2009. Across the board, Brent and Canadian Heavy prices are also crashing through the floor. Corporate credit and equity of companies in the energy sector continue to take relentless beatings as analysts continue to predict ever lower prices. The contagion effect has major oil producing countries all over the world scurrying to prevent their respective economic meltdowns as revenues are clawed back by the markets for every additional cent oil prices decline.