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The Biggest Event Risks In June

The Biggest Event Risks In June

Today being the first day of June, and the start of the last month of the first half of 2016, we thought it would be aptly appropriate to list down some of the biggest event risks that June will bring. These are the known unknowns — uncertainties which we already know about but not their outcomes.

The biggest risks in June (in our opinion) will be the EU referendum by the UK in the later part of the month, the June ECB monetary policy decision and press conference, the June FOMC statement and interest rate decision, and lastly the BoJ's monetary policy decision.

We feel markets will likely be most sensitive to these types of events, having chopped around for almost half a year now. There is great anticipation for guidance on where to go next, and we feel markets will likely take cues from central banks, chiefly the Fed.

April Review & Looking Forward (Part 2: Strategy)

April Review & Looking Forward (Part 2: Strategy)

In Part 1 of this note reviewing the eventful month of April, we spoke about how the tide was shifting in many of the developing economies with Europe's economy and financial conditions showing good signs of improvement while the American economy was undoubtedly slowing. We also spoke about macro economic cycles and how such polarities in the major economies have created exclusive opportunities in the financial markets.

With the current market climate hallmarked by panic, fear, and ephemeral swings, we have detected a couple of opportunities over the last couple of weeks that look promising in their own rights. In the last 2 weeks alone, a few records have already gone down the record books. This is heaven for opportunists.

In today's note, we wish to share our views and ongoing opinions on how we view the current market landscape and the strategies that we are and will likely be implementing to take advantage of the substantially different dynamics in today's environment.

April Review & Looking Forward (Part 1: Analysis)

April Review & Looking Forward (Part 1: Analysis)

April is set to close with a bang on what is easily the busiest week in terms of economic data releases for a long time. We have various sets of CPI and employment data releases from Europe the developed economiesGDP figures are also set to hit the wires, chiefly from the UK, US, and Canada

Central banks will be in hard focus where Australia's RBA fired the first salvo, followed by the FOMC, with New Zealand's RBNZ following suit. The BoJ will also hold its press conference. It is safe to say the market's attention will be fixated on the US 1Q15 GDP figures and the ensuing FOMC statement and press conference.

In this note, we will briefly go over some of the key developments we have seen in April across the globe from the American economy, to the renewed conflagrations in the tug of war between Greece and its creditors, to China's economic woes and financial troubles.

In Part 2, we will touch on the various markets we cover, present our views and purported strategies to trade them going forward.

Britain On Brink Of Deflation, BoE Expects It Even Lower

Britain On Brink Of Deflation, BoE Expects It Even Lower

First it was Europe that was mired in its coldest deflationary winter ever, then America promptly caught on. It was only a matter of time when cheap energy prices claimed its next victim - Britain. Unlike the Eurozone whose February CPI change settled at -0.3%, the UK saw no change in its price index from a year ago, missing estimates of a 0.1% rise and down from January's 0.3% change. The core figure (excluding food and energy) missed expectations of 1.3%, coming in at 1.2% from January's 1.4%. The market collectively expects deflation to officially strike in March. This comes on the heels of the BoE's Governor Mark Carney's comments about inflation dropping below zero in the next couple of months. Earlier in March, the Bank of England's MPC voted to keep interest rates at a record low of 0.5%, but foresaw a rate hike somewhere in 2016. The BoE is expected to trail the Fed in terms of monetary policy.