Risk

The Biggest Event Risks In June

The Biggest Event Risks In June

Today being the first day of June, and the start of the last month of the first half of 2016, we thought it would be aptly appropriate to list down some of the biggest event risks that June will bring. These are the known unknowns — uncertainties which we already know about but not their outcomes.

The biggest risks in June (in our opinion) will be the EU referendum by the UK in the later part of the month, the June ECB monetary policy decision and press conference, the June FOMC statement and interest rate decision, and lastly the BoJ's monetary policy decision.

We feel markets will likely be most sensitive to these types of events, having chopped around for almost half a year now. There is great anticipation for guidance on where to go next, and we feel markets will likely take cues from central banks, chiefly the Fed.

Goldman Says Overweight Cash On Mounting Global Risks

Goldman Says Overweight Cash On Mounting Global Risks

More and more are jumping on the "sell in May and go away" bandwagon but for good reason. As U.S. stocks base around in short term trading awaiting more cues about a potential June rate hike from the April FOMC minutes to be released later today, the big players have their eye on the bigger picture.

This is something we've talked about on these pages, and something we buy, on the caveat that technical factors turn conducive. The month of May has historically heralded volatility in the financial markets.

The key takeaways from Goldman are: Overweight cash, avoid equities, look to profit from up in quality carry, and perhaps buy some volatility.

Here's Why Dumping Risk & Buying Cash Might Be The Smartest Move This Year

Here's Why Dumping Risk & Buying Cash Might Be The Smartest Move This Year

It's been an extremely busy first week of 2016 for Business Of Finance. Global markets are in a state of frenzied chaos, much like a chicken running around without its head.Only this time every risk asset has been sold with reckless abandon while liquidity is conversely bid to the moon. Anyone who shorted risk, went long volatility, and stayed in cash since Christmas week would be gleefully grinning at the poor folks who are trapped in 2015's outdated ideologue 

While we are hard pressed for time, we feel we need to put this piece out to give readers a first glance of what 2016 might be like for the markets all across the world. We have a feeling 2016 may be markedly different from the past 5 years where cash might actually be the best performing asset. Yes, being in cash is a position in and of itself.

In layman's speak, you ether go big or go home in 2016. At least that's what we think. You could make a hack a lot of profits or loose your shirt in the kind of markets we've been greeted with so far. So buckle up, sit tight, sell risk and buy cash.

Bill Gross: Worry About "Return Of Capital" Instead Of "Return On Capital"

Bill Gross: Worry About "Return Of Capital" Instead Of "Return On Capital"

In this month's investment outlook, Janus Capital's Bill Gross warns about the mounting stresses in the global financial markets and why you should be much more concerned about the return of your capital, than the return on your capital.

Clearly for the bond king, size does matter. The size of recent market movements, during a time when most central banks in major developed markets have stopped their balance sheet expansion programs, is telling us participants that all is not well and that there may be something lurking behind the shadows.

Gross talks about how nearly 8 years of zero bound interest rates and QE have led to a global economy that is now so out of whack it would take a shock, in the form of secularly higher interest rates and borrowing costs, to fix. But therein lies the rub. Markets get absolutely spooked on any mention of a rate hike or a cut back in existing expansionary monetary policies (ECB, BoJ, PBoC, ect...).

 

Bill Gross: "Nightmare Panic Selling" Coming

Bill Gross: "Nightmare Panic Selling" Coming

When Bill Gross speaks, the markets better listen. At Business Of Finance, we reserve a great reverence for Mr Gross not only for his adept ability to foretell mega trends in the financial markets, but also because the man has a rare talent in piecing everything together to form investment thesis that have proven to work well.

Retail investors and traders now have access to very complex financial instruments such as bond fund and volatility ETFs, and more recently funds that are synthesized using cross currency total return swaps on extremely illiquid markets such as a ferrous commodity contract that trades on a futures exchange in China.

Bill Gross' latest investment outlook titled "It Never Rains In California" delves into the reasons why the bond king believe a fat tail may be in the making, and why investors and traders should be prepared for it by having enough liquidity when the boat tips.

Do retail investors and traders really know what they have involved themselves with? We hope so, but logic tells us otherwise.

Grexit, U.S. & Canada Contraction

Grexit, U.S. & Canada Contraction

Greece is now back in recession while a €1.5bn IMF payment looms just 2 days away. Greece, now led ever deeper astray by a stubbornly defiant Government, is undeniably the champions when it comes to perpetually kicking the can down the road.

Tuesday's data showed that inflation in the currency union warmed to 0.3% YoY from 0.2% in April - yet another sign that Greece is being left far in the wake of a ship that has long set sail.

The toil of staying in the Eurozone, being in a constant and never ending tug of war, and having to cede to the demands of its creditors whom will ultimately have their way just adds fodder to the chimeric spirit of a once independent and free Greece.

All these indicates to us that the risk of a Grexit (Greek Exit) has never been greater, although it might not seem so on the surface.The impetus to leave the Euro and write off just about all of its external liabilities looks to be the path of least resistance to us. The upside risks of a Grexit is undervalued and which probabilities are overly discounted.

 

April Review & Looking Forward (Part 2: Strategy)

April Review & Looking Forward (Part 2: Strategy)

In Part 1 of this note reviewing the eventful month of April, we spoke about how the tide was shifting in many of the developing economies with Europe's economy and financial conditions showing good signs of improvement while the American economy was undoubtedly slowing. We also spoke about macro economic cycles and how such polarities in the major economies have created exclusive opportunities in the financial markets.

With the current market climate hallmarked by panic, fear, and ephemeral swings, we have detected a couple of opportunities over the last couple of weeks that look promising in their own rights. In the last 2 weeks alone, a few records have already gone down the record books. This is heaven for opportunists.

In today's note, we wish to share our views and ongoing opinions on how we view the current market landscape and the strategies that we are and will likely be implementing to take advantage of the substantially different dynamics in today's environment.

Jim Reid: Volatile Volatility

Jim Reid: Volatile Volatility

What makes this move shocking is that just last month the SNB committed themselves to preventing their currency appreciating beyond 1.20 to the Euro and vowed they would enforce the policy with "the utmost determination". The risk for the global financial system is that if the SNB can make such a dramatic u-turn could other central banks follow at some point. We're not so concerned here as their situation is arguably a lot different to the ECB. The ECB might actually look at the wider market moves yesterday and be scared to disappoint.