Fiscal policy

The Biggest Event Risks In June

The Biggest Event Risks In June

Today being the first day of June, and the start of the last month of the first half of 2016, we thought it would be aptly appropriate to list down some of the biggest event risks that June will bring. These are the known unknowns — uncertainties which we already know about but not their outcomes.

The biggest risks in June (in our opinion) will be the EU referendum by the UK in the later part of the month, the June ECB monetary policy decision and press conference, the June FOMC statement and interest rate decision, and lastly the BoJ's monetary policy decision.

We feel markets will likely be most sensitive to these types of events, having chopped around for almost half a year now. There is great anticipation for guidance on where to go next, and we feel markets will likely take cues from central banks, chiefly the Fed.

Bill Gross: About Helicopter Money

Bill Gross: About Helicopter Money

Technology and mass robotization are probably the single biggest threats to our jobs. Jobs of both the blue and white collars are gradually being replaced by robots that are much more cost efficient and productive. Plus, robots have no want for minimum wages, or hold strikes in protest for what is now a huge skill deficiency in the labor force across the world.

So will politicians and central planners dabble with the risk of upsetting the status quo for a potential change in direction? Unlikely.

Rather, Janus Capital's Bill Gross believes central planners will stick to what they have always been best at: Printing money (QE), lowering interest rates or bringing them sub zero as we've seen recently, and fiscally stimulating economies with debt funded programs thereby creating a false impression of prosperity when there isn't.

April Review & Looking Forward (Part 2: Strategy)

April Review & Looking Forward (Part 2: Strategy)

In Part 1 of this note reviewing the eventful month of April, we spoke about how the tide was shifting in many of the developing economies with Europe's economy and financial conditions showing good signs of improvement while the American economy was undoubtedly slowing. We also spoke about macro economic cycles and how such polarities in the major economies have created exclusive opportunities in the financial markets.

With the current market climate hallmarked by panic, fear, and ephemeral swings, we have detected a couple of opportunities over the last couple of weeks that look promising in their own rights. In the last 2 weeks alone, a few records have already gone down the record books. This is heaven for opportunists.

In today's note, we wish to share our views and ongoing opinions on how we view the current market landscape and the strategies that we are and will likely be implementing to take advantage of the substantially different dynamics in today's environment.

April Review & Looking Forward (Part 1: Analysis)

April Review & Looking Forward (Part 1: Analysis)

April is set to close with a bang on what is easily the busiest week in terms of economic data releases for a long time. We have various sets of CPI and employment data releases from Europe the developed economiesGDP figures are also set to hit the wires, chiefly from the UK, US, and Canada

Central banks will be in hard focus where Australia's RBA fired the first salvo, followed by the FOMC, with New Zealand's RBNZ following suit. The BoJ will also hold its press conference. It is safe to say the market's attention will be fixated on the US 1Q15 GDP figures and the ensuing FOMC statement and press conference.

In this note, we will briefly go over some of the key developments we have seen in April across the globe from the American economy, to the renewed conflagrations in the tug of war between Greece and its creditors, to China's economic woes and financial troubles.

In Part 2, we will touch on the various markets we cover, present our views and purported strategies to trade them going forward.